Market
What role will the Vatican play in future Cuba negotiations by the end of 2025?
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José Daniel Ferrer•Vatican•Biden•Ferrer•Cuba•Union Patriótica de Cuba•UNPACU•Luis Robles•Otero Alcántara•Maykel Oborbo
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mediator in further negotiations • 25%
No further involvement • 25%
Facilitator of humanitarian aid • 25%
Critic of Cuban government • 25%
Statements from the Vatican and reports from international news agencies
Story
Cuba Frees 553 Prisoners Including Opposition Leader José Daniel Ferrer in U.S.-Vatican Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 05:25 PM
Cuban authorities have released José Daniel Ferrer, a prominent opposition leader and political prisoner, as part of an agreement facilitated by the Vatican and the Biden administration. Ferrer, who was detained on July 11, 2021, during widespread anti-government protests, was among 553 prisoners set free under the deal. The release comes after the U.S. removed Cuba from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Ferrer, a leader of the Union Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), had been subjected to physical and psychological torture during his imprisonment. Alongside Ferrer, Luis Robles was also released, though other political prisoners such as Otero Alcántara and Maykel Oborbo remain incarcerated.
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United Nations • 25%
Vatican • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
All prisoners released • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
Some prisoners released • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Engages in direct negotiations • 25%
Withdraws support • 25%
Increases diplomatic pressure on Israel • 25%
Continues support without further action • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Insufficient Data • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Cardinal • 25%
Secretary of a Dicastery • 25%
Prefect of another Dicastery • 25%
Strengthening ties with Russia and China • 25%
Focusing on Latin American alliances • 25%
Pursuing broader international recognition • 25%
Improving relations with the EU • 25%