Market
What role will Russia play in resolving the Ukraine conflict by April 20, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Ukraine•Keith Kellogg•Russia•Trump•Easter•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Kellogg
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major Concessions • 25%
Minor Concessions • 25%
No Concessions • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Official statements from Russia, Ukraine, or international observers
Story
Trump Aims to End Ukraine War by Easter, Appoints Keith Kellogg as Envoy, Resolving Conflict by January 20
Jan 8, 2025, 07:59 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized ending the war in Ukraine, announcing plans to resolve the conflict within the first 100 days of his administration. Appointing General Keith Kellogg as the special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Trump aims to secure a solution that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty. Analysts suggest that a potential deal could emerge by Easter, contingent upon concessions from both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kellogg emphasized that the administration's approach will not involve yielding to Russian demands, but rather focus on fairness and the protection of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
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Mediating role • 25%
Supportive but not mediating • 25%
Other role • 25%
Non-participatory • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Peace Agreement Signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%