Market
What changes will occur within Hamas following recovery of Oron Shaul's remains by mid-2025?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Oron Shaul•Golani Brigade•Hamas•Shejaiya•Gaza•Operation Protective Edge•Shaul•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership change • 25%
Policy change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas or reports by credible news organizations
Story
IDF Recovers Body of Golani Soldier Oron Shaul Held by Hamas Since 2014
Jan 19, 2025, 06:03 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet security agency have recovered the body of Staff Sergeant Oron Shaul, a 20-year-old Golani Brigade soldier who was killed during fierce fighting with Hamas in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza on July 20, 2014, during Operation Protective Edge. Shaul's body was abducted by Hamas and held for over a decade. The clandestine operation to retrieve his remains was carried out shortly before a ceasefire came into effect. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the successful mission.
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Other • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Partially completed • 25%
Completed as planned • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Military action initiated • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Deal breakdown • 25%
All hostages and prisoners exchanged • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Further negotiations • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Continued ceasefire • 25%