Market
What will be the outcome of the Hamas hostage situation by January 21, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Hamas•Gaza•Trump•Middle East•Israeli Defense•Israel Katz•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•American•Washington
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Military action initiated • 25%
Official statements from Hamas, Israeli government, US government, or credible international news agencies
Story
Trump Warns Hamas of Dire Consequences If 96 Hostages Not Released by Jan. 20; IDF Prepares for Action
Jan 10, 2025, 08:47 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas, stating that 'all hell will break out' if the group does not release the 96 hostages it holds in Gaza before his inauguration on January 20. Trump's comments were made during a news conference, emphasizing that failure to secure a hostage release deal by the Jan. 20 deadline would lead to severe consequences for Hamas and potentially destabilize the Middle East. In response to Trump's ultimatum, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a military plan for the 'complete defeat' of Hamas in Gaza if no hostage deal is reached by the time Trump takes office. Additionally, relatives of the seven American hostages held by Hamas have announced their intention to attend Trump's inauguration, hoping to leverage the event to press for the release of their loved ones. The families are also scheduled to meet with officials from the incoming Trump administration during their stay in Washington.
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Similar markets
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostages released • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Released • 25%
Gaza • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Transferred to another location • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
All hostages liberated • 25%
No hostages liberated • 25%
Some hostages liberated • 25%
Unknown status • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Failure • 25%