Market
What changes will occur in PKK/KCK leadership by the end of 2025 following Özmen's capture?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership structure reformed • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Reports from intelligence agencies and news outlets
Story
Turkey's MIT Captures PKK/KCK Ringleader Serhat Özmen, Known as Yılmaz, in Syria
Dec 6, 2024, 01:05 PM
Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has captured Serhat Özmen, a so-called ringleader of the PKK/KCK terrorist group in Syria, and brought him back to Turkey. Özmen, also known by the code name Yılmaz, was apprehended outside of Turkey as part of an operation targeting the group's intelligence structure in Syria.
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Similar markets
Other • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership consolidated • 25%
Leadership structure remains unchanged • 25%
Other reasons for leadership change • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to Turkish pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to internal PKK dynamics • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Other • 25%
Strategic shift • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in activities • 25%
Increase in activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Operation postponed • 25%
No operation conducted • 25%
Operation fails • 25%
Successful operation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Cemil Bayik • 25%
Murat Karayilan • 25%
Other • 25%
Duran Kalkan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other development • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other political outcome • 25%
Öcalan's influence decreases • 25%
Öcalan's influence remains the same • 25%
Öcalan gains political influence • 25%
Red • 25%
Blue • 25%
Green • 25%
Other • 25%