Market
Will Turkey capture another PKK/KCK leader by the end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT)
Story
Turkey's MIT Captures PKK/KCK Ringleader Serhat Özmen, Known as Yılmaz, in Syria
Dec 6, 2024, 01:05 PM
Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has captured Serhat Özmen, a so-called ringleader of the PKK/KCK terrorist group in Syria, and brought him back to Turkey. Özmen, also known by the code name Yılmaz, was apprehended outside of Turkey as part of an operation targeting the group's intelligence structure in Syria.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Cemil Bayik • 25%
Murat Karayilan • 25%
Duran Kalkan • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation fails • 25%
Successful operation • 25%
No operation conducted • 25%
Operation postponed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Other reasons for leadership change • 25%
Leadership change due to Turkish pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to internal PKK dynamics • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
PKK eliminated by Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK remains active • 25%
PKK self-dissolves • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Strategic shift • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
