Market
What changes will NATO make to its operational strategy by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant strategic changes • 25%
Minor strategic changes • 25%
No strategic changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
NATO official strategy documents or announcements detailing strategic changes
Story
Trump Threatens NATO Exit Over Unpaid Bills, Hints at Ukraine Aid Cut
Dec 8, 2024, 06:31 PM
Former President Donald Trump has stated that he would consider withdrawing the United States from NATO if other member countries fail to meet their financial obligations and treat the U.S. fairly. In an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," Trump remarked, "If they're paying their bills and if I think they're treating us fairly, the answer is absolutely—I'd stay with NATO." He also suggested the possibility of reducing aid to Ukraine and emphasized the need to restructure unfair trade agreements with the U.S.
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Strengthened alliances with non-NATO countries • 25%
Increased military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
Enhanced cyber defense capabilities • 25%
Other • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Joint procurement and innovation • 25%
Conventional military capabilities • 25%
Undersea infrastructure protection • 25%
Emphasis on cyber defense • 25%
Other strategic shifts • 25%
Increased focus on Russia • 25%
Shift to counterterrorism • 25%
Naval expansion • 25%
Ground forces enhancement • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Air and missile defense • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Policy weakens • 25%
Policy strengthens • 25%
Focus on technology and innovation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts • 25%
Strengthened alliances with non-NATO countries • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Conventional military forces • 25%
Technological innovation • 25%
Joint operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Military buildup • 25%
Defense spending • 25%
Nuclear deterrence • 25%
Hybrid warfare • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Conventional military readiness • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
North Korea • 25%
