Market
Changes in NATO's collective defense policy by end of 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy strengthens • 25%
Policy weakens • 25%
Other changes • 25%
NATO official communications or public announcements
Story
Trump Threatens U.S. Exit from NATO Unless Allies Increase Financial Contributions, NBC News Reports
Dec 8, 2024, 02:51 PM
In a recent interview with NBC News, Donald Trump stated that the United States would consider withdrawing from NATO unless allied nations increase their financial contributions. Trump emphasized that if the allies are fulfilling their financial obligations and treating the U.S. fairly, he would remain committed to NATO. His comments reflect a growing concern over the financial disparities within the alliance, as Trump has previously criticized NATO members for not meeting their defense spending commitments. The remarks have raised alarms about the future of U.S. involvement in NATO amid ongoing global security challenges.
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Enhanced cyber defense capabilities • 25%
Increased military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened alliances with non-NATO countries • 25%
Minor strategic changes • 25%
No strategic changes • 25%
Significant strategic changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Joint operations • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Conventional military forces • 25%
Technological innovation • 25%
Air and missile defense • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Ground forces enhancement • 25%
Naval expansion • 25%
Increase to 5% target • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Increase to 3% target • 25%
Maintain 2% target • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Deployment of additional resources • 25%
Increased monitoring • 25%
Conventional military capabilities • 25%
Cybersecurity • 25%
Joint procurement and innovation • 25%
Undersea infrastructure protection • 25%
Focus on technology and innovation • 25%
Strengthened alliances with non-NATO countries • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts • 25%
30% or more • 25%
20% to 29% • 25%
10% to 19% • 25%
Less than 10% • 25%