Market
Will the U.S. withdraw from NATO by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or NATO confirming the withdrawal
Story
Trump Threatens NATO Exit Over Unpaid Bills, Hints at Ukraine Aid Cut
Dec 8, 2024, 06:31 PM
Former President Donald Trump has stated that he would consider withdrawing the United States from NATO if other member countries fail to meet their financial obligations and treat the U.S. fairly. In an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," Trump remarked, "If they're paying their bills and if I think they're treating us fairly, the answer is absolutely—I'd stay with NATO." He also suggested the possibility of reducing aid to Ukraine and emphasized the need to restructure unfair trade agreements with the U.S.
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Other • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Calls for renegotiation • 25%
Minimal response • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
US remains in NATO • 25%
US withdraws from NATO • 25%
US reduces involvement • 25%
Remain around 80,000 • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decrease to below 50,000 • 25%
Increase to over 100,000 • 25%