Market
Public sentiment outcome of Yoon protests by Jan 12, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support Yoon • 25%
Majority oppose Yoon • 25%
Public opinion remains divided • 25%
Other • 25%
Polls or surveys conducted by reputable South Korean organizations
Story
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Evades Arrest After Standoff; Court Rejects Objection
Jan 5, 2025, 01:40 AM
On Friday, January 3, 2025, South Korean investigators failed in their attempt to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence in Seoul over his failed martial law declaration. The six-hour standoff with Yoon's security team ended after investigators cited safety concerns and called off the arrest. The investigators have since asked Acting President Choi Sang-mok to order the presidential security service to comply with the arrest warrant, which is set to expire on Monday, January 6. A South Korean court has dismissed Yoon's objection to the arrest warrant. Thousands of protesters for and against Yoon have staged rallies in Seoul, braving heavy snow as tensions escalate ahead of the warrant's expiration. The presidential security service has refused to cooperate, citing legal debates over the warrant.
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Protests Intensify • 33%
Protests Remain Unchanged • 34%
Protests Subside • 33%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
No significant demonstrations • 25%
Anti-Yoon demonstrators • 25%
Pro-Yoon demonstrators • 25%
Equal turnout • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Protests lead to no change • 25%
Protests lead to warrant extension • 25%
Protests lead to Yoon's arrest • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
No Change in Protests • 25%
Decreased Protests • 25%
Mixed Reactions • 25%
Increased Protests • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Other shift • 25%
Increased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests remain stable • 25%
Dissipate completely • 25%
Increase significantly • 25%
Remain about the same • 25%
Decrease significantly • 25%