Market
Primary reason for potential reversal of security clearances revocation by Dec 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Legal challenge outcome • 25%
Political pressure • 25%
National security concerns • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Court rulings, official statements, or legal documents
Story
Trump Revokes Security Clearances of 51 Former Intel Officials and John Bolton Over Hunter Biden Laptop Claims
Jan 21, 2025, 01:53 AM
President Donald Trump has revoked the security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials who had signed a letter prior to the 2020 presidential election, claiming that Hunter Biden's laptop was 'Russian disinformation'. The officials had asserted that the laptop story had 'all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation'. Among those whose clearances were revoked is former National Security Advisor John Bolton. The move was enacted through an executive order signed by Trump on his first day in office.
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Other • 25%
Congressional hearing • 25%
No legal action • 25%
Lawsuit filed • 25%
Petition for reinstatement • 25%
No action taken • 25%
File a lawsuit • 25%
Seek a congressional review • 25%
Violation of confidentiality • 25%
National security concerns • 25%
Political misconduct • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Revoked by Trump administration • 25%
Implemented without issue • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Blocked by legal action • 25%
Political reasons • 25%
Lack of threat • 25%
Cost-saving measures • 25%
Other • 25%