Market
Primary reason for OpenAI's decision on AGI clause by March 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strategic partnership • 25%
Financial considerations • 25%
Technological advancements • 25%
Regulatory reasons • 25%
Statements from OpenAI board or executives, press releases, or reputable news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks Billions from Microsoft by Dropping AGI Clause
Dec 6, 2024, 02:29 PM
OpenAI is in discussions to remove a clause from its corporate structure that currently restricts Microsoft's ($MSFT) access to its most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This strategic shift aims to unlock billions of dollars in future investments from Microsoft, its key investor. The clause, known as the 'AGI clause,' would be removed to allow Microsoft to continue benefiting from OpenAI's technology, potentially altering the dynamics of their partnership. The decision to remove the clause would be determined by OpenAI's board, which currently holds the power to decide when AGI has been achieved.
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No decision announced • 25%
Clause modified • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
Clause removed • 25%
Improper investor agreements • 25%
Antitrust violations • 25%
Other legal reasons • 25%
Breach of original mission • 25%
With Microsoft • 25%
With another tech company • 25%
With a non-tech entity • 25%
No major partnership announced • 25%
Milestone redefined • 25%
Achieved $100 billion profit • 25%
Did not achieve $100 billion profit • 25%
Partnership dissolved • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Strategic decision • 25%
Investor demand • 25%
Regulatory pressure • 25%
Transparency • 25%
AI ethics • 25%
Copyright compliance • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Settlement reached in existing case • 25%
No major legal action • 25%
OpenAI files a new lawsuit • 25%
New lawsuit filed against OpenAI • 25%