Market
Will OpenAI remove the AGI clause by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from OpenAI or Microsoft, press releases, or reputable news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks Billions from Microsoft by Dropping AGI Clause
Dec 6, 2024, 02:29 PM
OpenAI is in discussions to remove a clause from its corporate structure that currently restricts Microsoft's ($MSFT) access to its most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This strategic shift aims to unlock billions of dollars in future investments from Microsoft, its key investor. The clause, known as the 'AGI clause,' would be removed to allow Microsoft to continue benefiting from OpenAI's technology, potentially altering the dynamics of their partnership. The decision to remove the clause would be determined by OpenAI's board, which currently holds the power to decide when AGI has been achieved.
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Clause modified • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
No decision announced • 25%
Clause removed • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by over 20% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
With Microsoft • 25%
No major partnership announced • 25%
With a non-tech entity • 25%
With another tech company • 25%
