Market
Nature of Microsoft's investment in OpenAI by end of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Equity investment • 25%
Partnership extension • 25%
Joint venture • 25%
No investment • 25%
Official announcements from Microsoft or OpenAI, press releases, or reputable financial news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks Billions from Microsoft by Dropping AGI Clause
Dec 6, 2024, 02:29 PM
OpenAI is in discussions to remove a clause from its corporate structure that currently restricts Microsoft's ($MSFT) access to its most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This strategic shift aims to unlock billions of dollars in future investments from Microsoft, its key investor. The clause, known as the 'AGI clause,' would be removed to allow Microsoft to continue benefiting from OpenAI's technology, potentially altering the dynamics of their partnership. The decision to remove the clause would be determined by OpenAI's board, which currently holds the power to decide when AGI has been achieved.
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Investment decreases • 25%
Investment increases • 25%
Investment withdrawn • 25%
Investment remains unchanged • 25%
Decreased stake • 25%
Microsoft divests completely • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased stake • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Maintain current investment level • 25%
Increase investment in OpenAI models • 25%
Decrease investment in OpenAI models • 25%
Shift focus to alternative AI models • 25%
Moderate new funding secured • 25%
No new funding secured • 25%
Significant new funding secured • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
