Market
What will be the primary reason for OpenAI's transition to a public benefit corporation by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Regulatory pressure • 25%
Investor demand • 25%
Strategic decision • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Official statements from OpenAI or analysis by reputable business analysts
Story
Elon Musk Calls for California and Delaware to Auction OpenAI Stake, Citing Potential Tens of Billions in Value
Jan 9, 2025, 06:05 PM
Elon Musk has urged the attorneys-general of California and Delaware to compel OpenAI to auction a substantial stake in the company. This call comes as OpenAI seeks to transition into a public benefit corporation. Musk's lawyer, Marc Toberoff, emphasized the potential for tens of billions in value from the auction, representing the interests of significant artificial intelligence investors. Musk, who co-founded OpenAI, has had ongoing disagreements with the company's CEO, Sam Altman, regarding its direction and governance.
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Nonprofit arm expanded • 25%
Nonprofit arm dissolved • 25%
Nonprofit arm remains unchanged • 25%
Nonprofit arm restructured • 25%
Hybrid model • 25%
Fully transitions to for-profit • 25%
Other structural change • 25%
Remains non-profit • 25%
Improper investor agreements • 25%
Other legal reasons • 25%
Antitrust violations • 25%
Breach of original mission • 25%
Mission alignment concerns • 25%
Leadership disagreements • 25%
Regulatory issues • 25%
Financial concerns • 25%
No transition completed • 25%
Successful transition with increased profitability • 25%
Transition but with financial losses • 25%
Transition with moderate profitability • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Transparency • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Copyright compliance • 25%
AI ethics • 25%