Market
Primary entity held accountable for Baltic Sea cable damage by Finland by September 30, 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Eagle S crew • 25%
Eagle S owner • 25%
Another vessel • 25%
No entity held accountable • 25%
Official statements from Finnish authorities or credible news sources
Story
Finland Probes Seized Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker Eagle S Over 100km Cable Drag Mark in Baltic Sea
Dec 31, 2024, 04:10 PM
Finnish authorities are investigating the damage to the Estlink 2 power cable and several data cables in the Baltic Sea, which they suspect was caused by the anchor of the seized tanker Eagle S. The vessel, part of Russia's 'shadow fleet' used to circumvent Western sanctions, was detained by Finnish officials after the incident on Christmas Day, December 25. Investigators have discovered a drag mark on the seabed stretching for almost 100 kilometers, believed to be from the tanker's anchor. The ship, registered under the Cook Islands flag and carrying 20 crew members, is currently anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo for further examination. The owner of the tanker is seeking its release, while Finnish police have imposed a travel ban on seven crew members suspected of involvement in the cable damage.
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Similar markets
Technical Fault • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Non-State Actor • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Another country • 25%
No country held responsible • 25%
No vessel identified • 25%
Another vessel • 25%
Eagle S • 25%
Xin Xin Tian • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Accidental cause • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
State actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
United States • 25%
France • 25%
Germany • 25%
Other • 25%
Accidental digging • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Confirmed sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Confirmed accidental damage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Accidental damage during construction • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Sabotage • 25%