Market
Primary Blame for Ursa Major Incident by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Terrorist Organization • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Official reports from international investigative bodies
Story
Russian Bulk Carrier Ursa Major Sinks Off Spanish Coast After Explosions; Owner Claims Terrorist Attack
Dec 25, 2024, 04:23 PM
The Russian bulk carrier Ursa Major has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea following what its owner describes as a "terrorist attack," according to multiple reports. Oboronlogistika, the state-owned company affiliated with Russia's Defense Ministry, stated that three sequential explosions occurred on the starboard side near the stern, leading to the vessel's sinking. The incident reportedly took place on December 23 in international waters off the Spanish coast. The Ursa Major was reportedly on the U.S. sanctions list.
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Similar markets
State actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Terrorist group • 25%
Internal malfunction • 25%
Confirmed terrorist attack • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Sabotage by unknown actors • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Other • 25%
NATO member state • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
No foul play • 25%
Foul play confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Interpol • 25%
European Union • 25%
Russia • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Military action • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support for Russia's claims • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Call for international investigation • 25%
Condemnation of Russia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Both equally • 25%
Turkey • 25%
No official blame • 25%
SDF • 25%
U.S. military error • 25%
NATO • 25%
Other terrorist group • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
U.S. Treasury Department • 25%
FBI • 25%
Other • 25%
BeyondTrust • 25%