Market
Outcome of Ursa Major Incident Investigation by September 30, 2025
2
Russian•Ursa Major•Oboronlogistika•Russian Defense Ministry•Mediterranean Sea•Saint Petersburg•Vladivostok•Cartagena•Spain•Russian invasion of Ukraine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed terrorist attack • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Sabotage by unknown actors • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Official investigation reports from Russian or international bodies
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Sinks in Mediterranean After Alleged Terrorist Attack, 14 Rescued, 2 Missing
Dec 25, 2024, 04:05 PM
The Russian cargo ship Ursa Major, operated by Oboronlogistika, a company under the Russian Defense Ministry, sank in the Mediterranean Sea due to what its owner claims was a terrorist attack. The incident occurred on December 23, 2024, after three consecutive explosions were reported on the starboard side of the vessel, leading to its sinking. The ship, which was en route from Saint Petersburg to Vladivostok, was carrying port cranes and equipment for icebreakers. Out of the 16 Russian crew members on board, 14 were rescued and brought to the port of Cartagena in Spain, while two remain missing. The Ursa Major and its owner were previously subjected to U.S. sanctions in May 2022 following the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Foul play confirmed • 25%
No foul play • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Suspects convicted • 25%
Suspects acquitted • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
Criminal organization charges • 25%
Gang-related charges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No charges • 25%
Terrorist Organization • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Combination of factors • 25%
Operational failure • 25%
Leadership failure • 25%
Intelligence failure • 25%
Interpol • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Russia • 25%
Eagle S not found responsible • 25%
Eagle S found responsible • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Terrorist act confirmed • 25%
Accident confirmed • 25%
Sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Terrorist group • 25%
Internal malfunction • 25%
Unknown • 25%
State actor • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Protocol change recommended • 25%
Other • 25%
Training improvements suggested • 25%