Market
Accused Party for Ursa Major Attack by December 31, 2025
3
Russian•Ursa Major•Oboronlogistika•Russian Defense Ministry•Mediterranean Sea•Saint Petersburg•Vladivostok•Cartagena•Spain•Russian invasion of Ukraine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Non-state actor • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
NATO member state • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Russian or international authorities
Story
Russian Cargo Ship Ursa Major Sinks in Mediterranean After Alleged Terrorist Attack, 14 Rescued, 2 Missing
Dec 25, 2024, 04:05 PM
The Russian cargo ship Ursa Major, operated by Oboronlogistika, a company under the Russian Defense Ministry, sank in the Mediterranean Sea due to what its owner claims was a terrorist attack. The incident occurred on December 23, 2024, after three consecutive explosions were reported on the starboard side of the vessel, leading to its sinking. The ship, which was en route from Saint Petersburg to Vladivostok, was carrying port cranes and equipment for icebreakers. Out of the 16 Russian crew members on board, 14 were rescued and brought to the port of Cartagena in Spain, while two remain missing. The Ursa Major and its owner were previously subjected to U.S. sanctions in May 2022 following the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Other • 25%
Terrorist Organization • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
State actor • 25%
Internal malfunction • 25%
Terrorist group • 25%
Unknown • 25%
NATO • 25%
Other terrorist group • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Interpol • 25%
Russia • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia • 25%
Spain • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Algeria • 25%
Joint international effort • 25%
Iraqi Islamic Resistance • 25%
Houthi rebels • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%