Market
Potential new controller of Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Another country • 25%
No new perceived controller • 25%
Reports and analyses by geopolitical experts and major news outlets
Story
President-elect Trump Threatens to Reclaim Panama Canal Over "Exorbitant" Fees
Dec 22, 2024, 07:30 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States, citing "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" imposed on U.S. naval and merchant ships by Panama. He criticized the fees as a "complete rip-off" and warned that if Panama does not lower them, the U.S. should reclaim control of the strategic waterway. Trump also expressed concern that the canal could fall into "wrong hands," alluding to potential foreign control, and criticized the 1977 treaty under which President Jimmy Carter agreed to transfer control of the canal to Panama.
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Other • 25%
Panamanian Control • 25%
Chinese Control • 25%
U.S. Control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Ownership change • 25%
No changes • 25%
Operational changes • 25%
Joint operations with another country • 25%
New international consortium • 25%
Remain under current management • 25%
Joint China-Panama management • 25%
Joint U.S.-Panama management • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other significant impacts • 25%
Operational changes • 25%
Governance changes • 25%
Joint management • 25%
U.S. partial ownership • 25%
Panama retains full control • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Joint management initiative • 25%
Revised toll policies • 25%
No change • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
