Market
Outcome of U.S.-Venezuelan opposition negotiations by Q3 2025
2
Marco Rubio•Venezuelan•María Corina Machado•Edmundo González Urrutia•Rubio•Venezuela•González Urrutia
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing without agreement • 25%
Talks broken down • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or Venezuelan opposition leaders
Story
Rubio Reaffirms U.S. Support for Venezuelan Democracy, Recognizes González Urrutia as Rightful President
Jan 23, 2025, 12:28 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a video conference with Venezuelan opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, less than 24 hours after assuming his role. Rubio reaffirmed U.S. support for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela and the unconditional release of all political prisoners. The meeting underscores the importance of Venezuela's situation to U.S. foreign policy, with Rubio expressing admiration for the Venezuelan people and their democratic spirit. The U.S. recognizes González Urrutia as the rightful president of Venezuela following the disputed elections on July 28, which Rubio referred to as the '28J triumph'.
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Opposition forms government-in-exile • 25%
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Edmundo González returns and is sworn in • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
No progress • 25%
Situation worsens • 25%
Significant progress towards democracy • 25%
Moderate progress • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Initial agreements only • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Formal agreement • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No progress • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other organization • 25%
Organization of American States • 25%
European Union • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
Edmundo González becomes president • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%