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Outcome of opposition protests against Maduro's inauguration by Feb 2025?
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María Corina Machado•Caracas•Juan Pablo Guanipa•Chacao•Nicolás Maduro•Machado•Venezuela•Constitution•Human Rights Watch•Edmundo González
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from Venezuelan government and opposition leaders
Story
María Corina Machado Briefly Detained After Reappearing; President-elect Demands Immediate Release
Jan 9, 2025, 08:27 PM
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado reappeared in Caracas on Thursday after 133 days in hiding since denouncing election fraud in July. Joined by opposition figure Juan Pablo Guanipa, she participated in an opposition protest in the Chacao district against President Nicolás Maduro's upcoming inauguration. Addressing supporters, Machado declared, "Venezuela has already decided," adding, "If they carry out that crime against the Constitution and popular sovereignty, they will be sentencing their own destiny." As she departed the rally, Machado was "violently intercepted" by security forces who allegedly fired upon motorcycles in her convoy, according to her campaign team. Reports indicate she was detained, forced to record several videos, and then released. Human Rights Watch confirmed her detention and called for her immediate release. Edmundo González, identified as the president-elect of Venezuela, demanded Machado's immediate release, warning the security forces: "Do not play with fire." After several hours, her campaign team announced that she had been released and was safe.
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Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant change • 25%
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Other significant outcome • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
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Protests end • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Edmundo González returns and is sworn in • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Opposition forms government-in-exile • 25%
Opposition calls for new elections • 25%
Inauguration canceled • 25%
Inauguration postponed • 25%
Inauguration proceeds as planned • 25%
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Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro ousted through international intervention • 25%
Maduro ousted through internal uprising • 25%
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Edmundo González becomes president • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
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