Market
Outcome of U.S. airstrikes in Yemen by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
No discernible impact • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Reports from CENTCOM, international observers, or major news outlets
Story
U.S. Conducts Airstrikes on Missile Storage and Command Facilities in Sana'a, Yemen, Following Houthi Missile Attack Injuring 16 in Israel
Dec 21, 2024, 09:51 PM
On December 21, 2024, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces conducted precision airstrikes against missile storage and command-and-control facilities operated by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen's capital, Sana'a. The strikes targeted key military infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas, aiming to disrupt the group's operational capabilities. CENTCOM reported that during the operation, U.S. forces also intercepted multiple Houthi drones and an anti-ship cruise missile over the Red Sea. The airstrikes were part of a broader coalition effort involving British forces, responding to recent Houthi missile attacks, including one that reportedly injured 16 people in Israel. The operation reflects ongoing tensions in the region and the U.S. commitment to countering Houthi threats.
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Increased military tension • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No measurable impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Houthi capabilities strengthened • 25%
Significant Houthi military setback • 25%
Other • 25%
Limited impact • 25%
Houthi retaliation • 25%
No measurable impact • 25%
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minimal impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Moderate impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
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Continued escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Call for peace talks • 25%
Support for U.S. actions • 25%
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Condemnation • 25%
Increased Houthi attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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