Market
Outcome of U.S. military operations in Yemen by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Official military reports or verified news reports
Story
US CENTCOM Conducts Airstrikes on Houthi Facilities in Sanaa, Yemen, Using F/A-18 Hornet Jets on December 21, 2024
Dec 21, 2024, 09:11 PM
On December 21, 2024, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted precision airstrikes targeting missile storage and command-and-control facilities operated by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Sanaa, Yemen. The operation was aimed at disrupting potential attacks on U.S. Navy vessels in the Red Sea. CENTCOM reported that during the strikes, U.S. forces successfully intercepted multiple Houthi drones and an anti-ship cruise missile. The airstrikes involved assets from both the U.S. Air Force and Navy, including F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets. This military action underscores ongoing tensions in the region and the U.S. commitment to safeguarding maritime navigation.
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Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No discernible impact • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi capabilities • 25%
Limited success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Major success • 25%
Naval blockades • 25%
Airstrikes on Houthi targets • 25%
Other • 25%
Ground troop deployment • 25%
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
No measurable impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Minor impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
Houthi capabilities strengthened • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Significant degradation of Houthi capabilities • 25%
Moderate impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
No measurable impact • 25%
Minimal impact on Houthi capabilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased conflict • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Houthi military capabilities significantly reduced • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliatory attacks • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant Houthi military setback • 25%
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Houthi retaliation • 25%
Limited impact • 25%
Operation successfully completed • 25%
Operation ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Operation escalates • 25%