Market
Outcome of TikTok Supreme Court Case by January 19, 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. Supreme Court ruling and official announcements
Story
Supreme Court to Hear TikTok Ban Challenge Amid National Security and Free Speech Clash
Jan 9, 2025, 09:58 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on Friday over a federal law signed by President Joe Biden in April that requires TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, to be sold by January 19 or face a nationwide ban due to national security concerns. TikTok is suing to block the law, citing free speech rights, and has announced plans to shut down its U.S. operations on January 19 unless the Supreme Court blocks or delays the ban. The case pits national security concerns against free speech rights, with the fate of the popular social media platform, used by roughly half of the U.S. population, hanging in the balance.
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Similar markets
Case delayed past January 19, 2025 • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
TikTok wins appeal • 33%
TikTok loses appeal • 33%
Case deferred • 34%
No ruling by deadline • 25%
Appeal dismissed • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Appeal denied • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Appeal upheld • 25%
TikTok ban overturned • 25%
TikTok ban upheld • 25%
Case postponed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Partial relief granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Appeal Denied • 33%
No Ruling by Deadline • 34%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban Upheld • 25%
Ban Overturned • 25%
Appeal Granted • 33%
Delay the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Uphold the ban • 25%
Overturn the ban • 25%
Appeal Rejected • 25%
Appeal Accepted • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
No Decision by Deadline • 25%
TikTok operational with restrictions • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok operational without changes • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%