Market
Outcome of next significant military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies or official statements from the involved parties
Story
Israeli Drone Strike Targets Hezbollah Operatives in Tayr Debba, Lebanon, Killing Five
Jan 10, 2025, 03:49 PM
The Israeli military conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon, targeting a vehicle in the town of Tayr Debba, near Tyre. The strike, which occurred despite a ceasefire agreement in place since late November, resulted in the deaths of at least five people and injured four others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the strike was aimed at eliminating a threat posed by Hezbollah operatives who were loading weapons onto a truck. The IDF emphasized that the operation was conducted in accordance with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon, and they remain committed to removing any threat to the state of Israel and its citizens.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Ground incursion • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
