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New ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by April 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel or Lebanon, or international mediators
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Israeli Drone Strike Targets Hezbollah Operatives in Tayr Debba, Lebanon, Killing Five
Jan 10, 2025, 03:49 PM
The Israeli military conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon, targeting a vehicle in the town of Tayr Debba, near Tyre. The strike, which occurred despite a ceasefire agreement in place since late November, resulted in the deaths of at least five people and injured four others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the strike was aimed at eliminating a threat posed by Hezbollah operatives who were loading weapons onto a truck. The IDF emphasized that the operation was conducted in accordance with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon, and they remain committed to removing any threat to the state of Israel and its citizens.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
