Market
Outcome of next IDF operation in Gaza related to hostage recovery by end of 2025
2
Israeli•Rafah•Gaza Strip•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Israel Security Agency•Shin Bet•Youssef•Bedouin•Rahat•Hamas•Hamza•Bilal•Aisha
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with hostages recovered • 25%
Partial success with some hostages recovered • 25%
Unsuccessful with no hostages recovered • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Official statements from the IDF and analysis by major international news outlets
Story
IDF Recovers Body of Hostage Youssef al-Ziyadna from Rafah Tunnel; Son Hamza Also Presumed Dead
Jan 8, 2025, 04:08 PM
Israeli forces have recovered the body of Israeli hostage Youssef al-Ziyadna, 53, from an underground tunnel in Rafah in the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) announced on Wednesday. Youssef, a father of 19 children from the Bedouin community in Rahat, was abducted by Hamas militants along with three of his children during the October 7 attacks. The IDF stated that Youssef was killed in captivity. While the body of his son Hamza, 22, was not found, evidence suggests he was also killed. Two of Youssef’s other children, Bilal (18) and Aisha (17), were released in a previous hostage exchange in November 2023. The recovery brings the number of hostages still held by Hamas to 98, including both living hostages and those whose remains have yet to be retrieved.
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Similar markets
Partial release • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No release • 25%
Ceasefire without release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Increased international diplomatic tensions • 25%
Significant reduction in tunnel activities • 25%
Major humanitarian impact • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Unknown status • 25%
All hostages liberated • 25%
Some hostages liberated • 25%
No hostages liberated • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Other diplomatic means • 25%
Military operation • 25%
Negotiation • 25%
Hostage released • 25%
Hostage remains in captivity • 25%
Hostage killed • 25%
Hostage escapes • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%