Market
Primary method used by IDF to recover hostages from Hamas by June 30, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military operation • 25%
Negotiation • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Other diplomatic means • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or IDF, corroborated by international news agencies
Story
IDF Recovers Body of Itay Svirski, Hostage Murdered by Hamas in Gaza
Dec 4, 2024, 06:04 PM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet security agency have recovered the body of Itay Svirski, a 38-year-old hostage who was kidnapped from Kibbutz Be'eri on October 7, 2023, and murdered by Hamas terrorists while in captivity in January 2024. The operation took place in the Gaza Strip, and Svirski's body was brought back to Israel for burial. The IDF had previously announced that Svirski had been killed by his captors. His recovery marks another step in the ongoing efforts to bring back all hostages, with approximately 100 still held by Hamas, many of whom are believed to be alive and suffering.
View original story
Similar markets
Military Operation • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Negotiation and Diplomacy • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Partial success with some hostages recovered • 25%
Successful with hostages recovered • 25%
Unsuccessful with no hostages recovered • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Destroying tunnels and infrastructure • 25%
Targeting Hamas leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Securing border areas • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Dismantling Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Targeting Qassam Brigades • 25%
Other • 25%
Securing border areas • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Qatar • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire without release • 25%
Partial release • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No release • 25%