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Outcome of Israeli warning to Lebanon by June 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military conflict initiated by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Ceasefire continues without incident • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli and Lebanese governments and reports from major news outlets
Story
Israel Warns Lebanon of Military Response if Hezbollah Ceasefire Fails
Dec 3, 2024, 10:37 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to the Lebanese government, stating that if the ceasefire with Hezbollah collapses, Israel will no longer differentiate between Lebanon and Hezbollah. This statement implies that Israel would consider Lebanon as a whole responsible for any actions by Hezbollah, potentially leading to a broader military response. Katz emphasized that there would be no exemption for Lebanon in such a scenario, and Israel would respond strongly without distinguishing between the Lebanese military and Hezbollah forces.
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Increased military conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
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Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
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Israel takes military action • 25%
Joint humanitarian initiative • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No progress • 25%
Agreement on ceasefire • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military strike conducted • 25%
Other • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Support • 25%
Other • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
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Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%