Market
Outcome of Hezbollah's strategy against Israel by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah weakens • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and statements from Hezbollah
Story
Hezbollah Acknowledges Loss of Syrian Supply Route, Hopes for Anti-Israel Stance from New Syrian Leadership
Dec 14, 2024, 04:33 PM
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has publicly acknowledged in a televised address that the group has lost its military supply route through Syria following the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad by a sweeping opposition offensive. Qassem expressed hope that the new Syrian leadership would view Israel as an enemy and not normalize relations with it. Despite the setback, he emphasized Hezbollah's resilience and adaptability, suggesting the group can find alternative ways to continue its operations. Qassem also commented on Israel's ambitions, suggesting that they aim to settle in Gaza and annex the West Bank, and reiterated Hezbollah's commitment to resistance against Israel, stating that Israeli actions have not succeeded in breaking the group's resolve.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Decreased attacks • 25%
Increased attacks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Shift to diplomatic efforts • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
