Market
New international nuclear disarmament treaty signed by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from international bodies such as the United Nations or participating countries
Story
Doomsday Clock Moved to Closest Ever 89 Seconds to Midnight by Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Jan 28, 2025, 03:39 PM
On January 28, 2025, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock forward by one second to 89 seconds to midnight, marking the closest point to global catastrophe since the clock's creation in 1947. The adjustment reflects growing existential threats, including the risks of nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, ongoing conflicts, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence. Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, stated that the world has not made sufficient progress on these challenges and that immediate action is needed to avert potential disaster.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial disarmament agreement • 25%
Agreement to continue talks • 25%
Full disarmament agreement • 25%
US and Russia only • 25%
US, Russia, China • 25%
US and China only • 25%
No new treaty • 25%
Other international body • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%
No international involvement • 25%