Market
Country with most significant nuclear disarmament announcement in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
United States • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Official government announcements or international news reports
Story
Doomsday Clock Moved to Closest Ever 89 Seconds to Midnight by Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Jan 28, 2025, 03:39 PM
On January 28, 2025, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock forward by one second to 89 seconds to midnight, marking the closest point to global catastrophe since the clock's creation in 1947. The adjustment reflects growing existential threats, including the risks of nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, ongoing conflicts, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence. Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, stated that the world has not made sufficient progress on these challenges and that immediate action is needed to avert potential disaster.
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Similar markets
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
None • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
Russia • 33%
U.S. • 33%
China • 33%
Norway • 25%
Other • 25%
Japan • 25%
Switzerland • 25%
Both France and UK • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
France • 25%
Neither • 25%
Full disarmament agreement • 25%
Agreement to continue talks • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial disarmament agreement • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
China • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Talks postponed • 25%
Agreement to reduce arsenals • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%