Market
MPS-Mediobanca Merger Regulatory Approval by End of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Italian regulatory bodies or press releases from MPS or Mediobanca
Story
MPS Launches €13.3 Billion All-Share Bid for Mediobanca to Form Third Largest Italian Banking Group
Jan 24, 2025, 07:55 AM
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (MPS) has launched a €13.3 billion ($13.9 billion) all-share takeover bid for Mediobanca SpA, aiming to create a new national banking champion in Italy. The offer values Mediobanca at a 5.03% premium over its closing price on the previous day, with MPS offering 23 of its shares for every 10 Mediobanca shares. The proposed merger would position the new entity as the third largest banking group in Italy, enhancing competition against Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit. MPS, once bailed out by the Italian government, has been exploring a deal for Mediobanca, which has been met with opposition from Mediobanca itself. The move is part of a broader strategy to consolidate the Italian banking sector, with analysts expressing skepticism about the offer's adequacy.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Takeover withdrawn • 25%
Successful takeover • 25%
Takeover blocked • 25%
Takeover modified • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Offer rejected • 25%
Offer modified • 25%
Offer withdrawn • 25%
Successful takeover • 25%
Approved by some, rejected by others • 25%
No decision reached • 25%
Approved by all major stakeholders • 25%
Rejected by all major stakeholders • 25%