Market
Main Outcome of ICE Raids by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased deportations • 25%
Policy changes or reforms • 25%
Increased public opposition • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official reports from ICE or the Department of Homeland Security, and major news outlets
Story
ICE Begins Nationwide Raids Targeting Non-Citizen Criminals, Border Czar Homan Confirms
Jan 21, 2025, 06:24 PM
On January 21, 2025, Trump administration officials announced that targeted immigration raids have begun nationwide across the United States. Tom Homan, President Donald Trump's border czar, confirmed that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are conducting enforcement operations aimed at non-citizen criminals. "It's started. ICE teams are out there as of today," Homan said, emphasizing that the raids are focused on specific individuals who pose public safety threats. "This is a targeted enforcement operation," he added. Homan noted that agents have been directed to prioritize threats and have precise information on their targets. The operations are not random roundups but are based on intelligence about the whereabouts of the individuals.
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Non-criminals • 25%
Public safety threats • 25%
Criminals • 25%
Other • 25%
Raids blocked by local authorities • 25%
Raids postponed or cancelled • 25%
Successful deportation of undocumented immigrants • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Less than 1,000 arrests • 25%
More than 10,000 arrests • 25%
5,001 to 10,000 arrests • 25%
1,000 to 5,000 arrests • 25%
Raid obstructed/canceled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Raid partially completed • 25%
Raid completed as planned • 25%
Raids conducted as planned • 25%
Raids partially conducted • 25%
Raids postponed • 25%
Raids fully prevented • 25%
Postponed or canceled • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful with resistance • 25%
Successful with no resistance • 25%
Hospitals • 25%
Weddings/Funerals • 25%
Churches • 25%
Schools • 25%
Hospitals • 25%
Schools • 25%
Churches • 25%
Other • 25%
Modified • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Proceed as planned • 25%
Operations Fully Blocked • 25%
Operations Fully Upheld • 25%
Operations Partially Upheld • 25%
Operations Partially Blocked • 25%
