Market
How many arrests will result from ICE raids by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1,000 arrests • 25%
1,000 to 5,000 arrests • 25%
5,001 to 10,000 arrests • 25%
More than 10,000 arrests • 25%
Data released by ICE or the Department of Homeland Security
Story
ICE Begins Nationwide Raids on Criminal Illegal Aliens, Says Border Czar Homan
Jan 21, 2025, 06:35 PM
Border Czar Tom Homan has announced that targeted immigration raids led by ICE agents have begun across the United States. Speaking on January 21, 2025, Homan stated, "It's started. ICE teams are out there as of today." The raids focus on illegal immigrants who are considered public safety threats, particularly criminal illegal aliens, and are being conducted in major cities across the country. Homan emphasized that these operations are not random but are targeted enforcement actions, saying, "We even know sometimes who is living in the household with them." The nationwide operation follows President Trump's Day 1 executive orders aimed at tightening border security and enforcing immigration laws. "We're going to take the handcuffs off ICE that were placed on them by the Biden administration, and we're going to put them on the bad guys," Homan added during a press briefing.
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Increased deportations • 25%
Policy changes or reforms • 25%
Increased public opposition • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Less than 100 arrests • 25%
100-500 arrests • 25%
501-1000 arrests • 25%
More than 1000 arrests • 25%
Public safety threats • 25%
Non-criminals • 25%
Criminals • 25%
Other • 25%
Churches • 25%
Schools • 25%
Weddings/Funerals • 25%
Hospitals • 25%
Only Chicago • 25%
4-5 cities • 25%
More than 5 cities • 25%
2-3 cities • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Raids blocked by local authorities • 25%
Successful deportation of undocumented immigrants • 25%
Raids postponed or cancelled • 25%
Raid completed as planned • 25%
Raid partially completed • 25%
Raid obstructed/canceled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 to 200,000 • 25%
200,001 to 300,000 • 25%
More than 300,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
100,001 to 150,000 • 25%
More than 150,000 • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%