Market
What will be the primary outcome of ICE raids in Chicago by January 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful deportation of undocumented immigrants • 25%
Raids blocked by local authorities • 25%
Raids postponed or cancelled • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from ICE, the Department of Homeland Security, or major news outlets
Story
Trump to Begin Mass Deportations Tuesday with Chicago Raid Deploying 200 ICE Officers
Jan 18, 2025, 01:23 AM
The incoming Trump administration is planning a large-scale immigration raid in Chicago next week, marking the first move in President-elect Donald Trump's promised mass deportation campaign, according to four people familiar with the planning. The operation, described as a multi-day 'ground operation,' is set to begin on Tuesday morning, the day after Trump's inauguration on Monday, and will last all week. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is expected to deploy between 100 and 200 officers to carry out the operation in Chicago, with additional raids planned in other sanctuary cities such as New York City. The raids aim to target undocumented immigrants, fulfilling Trump's campaign pledge to crack down on illegal immigration. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has vowed to oppose the federal deportation efforts. The planned raids have sparked growing concerns among immigrant communities and advocates in Chicago.
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Other outcome • 25%
Raid completed as planned • 25%
Raid partially completed • 25%
Raid obstructed/canceled • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Proceed as planned • 25%
Modified • 25%
Raids fully prevented • 25%
Raids partially conducted • 25%
Raids conducted as planned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful with resistance • 25%
Postponed or canceled • 25%
Successful with no resistance • 25%
Raids fully prevented • 25%
Raids postponed • 25%
Raids conducted as planned • 25%
Raids partially conducted • 25%
Increased public opposition • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased deportations • 25%
Policy changes or reforms • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Minimal public attention • 25%
Widespread opposition • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Minor protests • 25%
Significant protests • 25%
Other forms of public response • 25%
No protests • 25%
Non-criminals • 25%
Other • 25%
Public safety threats • 25%
Criminals • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%