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How will the gas transit dispute between Ukraine and Slovakia be resolved by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian or Slovak governments or energy authorities
Story
Poland Prepares to Increase Electricity Exports to Ukraine Amid Slovakia's Threat to Cut Power Starting January 1
Dec 29, 2024, 03:37 PM
Poland is poised to increase electricity exports to Ukraine in response to threats from Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico to cut off backup power supplies. A senior Polish official stated that the government is prepared to boost domestic electricity production to mitigate any potential imbalance in Ukraine's energy system if Slovakia follows through with its threat. This development arises amid escalating tensions over gas transit through Ukraine, particularly following Kyiv's decision to halt Russian gas transit to the West starting January 1. The Polish assurances were made public following Fico's comments two days prior, indicating Slovakia's intention to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine due to the ongoing gas dispute.
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Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
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No actions taken • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
Unilateral action by Ukraine • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Unilateral action by Slovakia • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
Agreement extended • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
EU mediation efforts • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Secures alternative supply • 25%
Other • 25%
Energy rationing implemented • 25%
Negotiates with Russia for direct supply • 25%
EU involvement • 25%
Economic retaliation • 25%
Political disagreement • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
