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What will be the primary reason for any conflict between Slovakia and Ukraine over gas transit by March 2025?
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Slovak•Robert Fico•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Russian•Ukraine•Slovakia•Fico•European Union•Russia•Zelensky
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic retaliation • 25%
Political disagreement • 25%
EU involvement • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Official statements from both governments or credible news analysis
Story
Slovak PM Fico Warns Zelensky of 'Serious Conflict' Over Russian Gas Transit as Agreement Expires January 1
Dec 20, 2024, 12:13 PM
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has issued a stark warning to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Slovakia. Fico stated that if Ukraine does not allow the transit of gas, it could lead to a 'serious conflict.' This statement comes amid Slovakia's intention to block potential European Union sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector. Fico's remarks reflect escalating tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine, particularly as the agreement for the transit of Russian gas is set to expire on January 1, 2025. Fico expressed dissatisfaction with Zelensky's position, which indicated that Ukraine would not extend the transit agreement. The Slovak government is reportedly considering reciprocal measures against Ukraine if gas transit is not permitted.
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Ongoing dispute • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
Slovakia • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Unilateral action by Ukraine • 25%
Unilateral action by Slovakia • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
International mediation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Alternative EU supply • 25%
Continued shortage • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New deal with Russia • 25%