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How will the EU respond to the Slovakia-Ukraine energy dispute by February 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
EU mediation efforts • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Official statements from EU institutions, confirmed by major news outlets
Story
Slovakia's Robert Fico Threatens to Cut Electricity to Ukraine if Gas Transit Stops January 1, 2025, Causing Billions of Damage
Dec 28, 2024, 09:34 AM
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has issued a warning that Slovakia may halt electricity supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv stops the transit of Russian gas through its territory. This ultimatum comes as the current gas transit agreement is set to expire on January 1, 2025. Fico emphasized that the cessation of gas transit would lead to significant economic damage, potentially amounting to billions of euros for all parties involved, including Ukraine. In a statement, he asserted, "By stopping the gas transit, President Zelensky will cause billions of damage to the EU." He also indicated that Slovakia would evaluate potential reciprocal measures against Ukraine after January 1. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Fico of acting under Russian influence, suggesting that Fico's threats were part of a broader strategy to open a 'second energy front' against Ukraine, undermining both Slovak and Ukrainian interests during a critical winter period.
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Unilateral action by Ukraine • 25%
Unilateral action by Slovakia • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
No official response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Energy rationing implemented • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiates with Russia for direct supply • 25%
Secures alternative supply • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Slovakia • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Both actions • 25%
Halt electricity supplies • 25%
Reduce aid to refugees • 25%