Market
How will regional alliances involving Iran and Iraq shift by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened Iran-Iraq alliance • 25%
Deterioration of Iran-Iraq relations • 25%
Increased cooperation with Western countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical experts and credible news sources
Story
Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Agree to Halt Missile and Drone Attacks on Israel Amid Regional Tensions and Support for Hamas
Dec 23, 2024, 07:08 AM
Iran-backed militias in Iraq have reportedly reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to cease attacks on Israel and refrain from involvement in the situation in Syria. This development comes amid a broader context of regional tensions, particularly concerning support for Hamas and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. The agreement was highlighted by various media outlets, including the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar. Reports indicate that the militias will maintain their anti-Israel stance but will halt missile and drone attacks as they await the policy direction of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding the Middle East, especially in relation to Iran. The Iraqi government is expected to stand firm against international pressures while navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.
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Power balance remains stable • 25%
Other regional power shifts • 25%
Iran loses power • 25%
Iran gains power • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Current alliances strengthen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Alliances weaken significantly • 25%
New alliance forms • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran isolated • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Other • 25%
Syria • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Increased involvement in Yemen • 25%
Increased involvement in Syria • 25%
Increased involvement in Iraq • 25%
Other or no significant change • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Increased involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased support for Iran • 25%
New alliance against Israel • 25%