Market
How many active U.S. TikTok users will there be if the app is banned by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 50 million • 25%
50-100 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
More than 150 million • 25%
Official user statistics from TikTok or third-party analytics
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban Unless ByteDance Sells App by January 19
Jan 13, 2025, 03:01 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States beginning January 19 unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The justices heard oral arguments on Friday, expressing skepticism toward TikTok's challenge against the ban due to national security concerns. President-elect Donald Trump recently asked the court to uphold the ban. Some justices referred to TikTok as a 'website' and showed little concern for how the ban would affect its 170 million regular U.S. users. In response to the potential ban, users are migrating to alternative apps like Xiaohongshu (RedNote) and Lemon8, both of which have surged to the top of the U.S. App Store downloads.
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Similar markets
100-150 million • 25%
50-100 million • 25%
Less than 50 million • 25%
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Over 170 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Under 100 million • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
More than 200 million • 25%
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100-150 million • 25%
150-200 million • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
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Below 130 million • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
Above 170 million • 25%
130-150 million • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
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Data not available • 25%
No significant change • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Less than 100 million • 25%
150-200 million • 25%
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User base remains stable • 25%
User base increases • 25%
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Platform inaccessible • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
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Less than 100 million • 25%
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150 to 200 million • 25%
100 to 150 million • 25%