Market
China's primary response to U.S. Section 301 investigation by September 30, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal complaint to WTO • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiations with U.S. • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official announcements from China's Commerce Ministry or government press releases
Story
U.S. Initiates Section 301 Trade Probe into Chinese Legacy Semiconductors as Trump Transition Nears
Dec 23, 2024, 04:30 PM
President Joe Biden's administration has initiated a Section 301 trade investigation into China's production of legacy semiconductors, which are essential components in products like automobiles, appliances, medical devices, and defense systems. The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced that the probe is based on evidence suggesting that China is utilizing anti-competitive and non-market policies to dominate global chip production. The investigation will also examine components and end-use products containing Chinese legacy chips and could lead to new tariffs or other measures to block imports of Chinese-made chips. The Biden administration expressed concerns that China's rapid, state-driven expansion of semiconductor output is artificially lowering chip prices, harming U.S. businesses and workers. China's Commerce Ministry has strongly opposed the Section 301 investigation, stating that it will disrupt the global chip industry and supply chains, harm the interests of U.S. firms and consumers, and vowed to take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests. The probe will be handed over to the incoming Trump administration in January.
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No significant response • 25%
Other economic measures • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Impose new tariffs on U.S. goods • 25%
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Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Economic retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No official response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
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Other • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other economic measures • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Negotiation and diplomacy • 25%
Export subsidies • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Currency devaluation • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Increased arms sales to Taiwan • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
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No response • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiates a trade deal with the U.S. • 25%
Other strategic economic measures • 25%
Increases domestic subsidies to affected sectors • 25%
Imposes retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods • 25%
Increased Domestic Investment • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory Trade Measures • 25%
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