Market
How will China respond to the U.S. Section 301 probe on semiconductors by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Official statements from China's government or major news outlets
Story
Biden Initiates Section 301 Probe on Chinese Legacy Semiconductors, Handing Over to Trump
Dec 23, 2024, 02:41 PM
The Biden administration has launched a last-minute trade investigation into Chinese-made 'legacy' semiconductors under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which could lead to additional U.S. tariffs on these chips used in everyday products like autos, appliances, and medical devices. The investigation will be handed over to the incoming Trump administration for completion. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai stated that the probe aims to protect American and other semiconductor producers from China's state-driven efforts to dominate the global chip market. The investigation will also examine the incorporation of these chips into downstream components and end-use goods for critical industries such as defense, automotive, and medical devices. China's Commerce Ministry has criticized the investigation as protectionist, warning that it could disrupt global chip supply chains and harm U.S. firms and consumers. Beijing has vowed to take necessary measures to defend its rights and interests.
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Seek alternative suppliers • 25%
Impose sanctions on US companies • 25%
Increase domestic production • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Further restrictions on US companies • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Legal Action • 25%
Increased Domestic Investment • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory Trade Measures • 25%
Implement reciprocal export restrictions • 25%
Negotiate with the US • 25%
No significant action • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Increased domestic production • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other strategic responses • 25%
Shift to non-US suppliers • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other economic measures • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No action taken • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other trade measures • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Negotiations with U.S. • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Formal complaint to WTO • 25%
Non-tariff measures imposed • 25%
Investigation extended • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Subsidies withdrawal demanded • 25%
Other measures • 25%
No action taken • 25%