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Market
Key influencer in TikTok's US policy by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Donald Trump • 25%
Congress • 25%
Department of Justice • 25%
Other influencers • 25%
Reports from policy meetings, official statements, and news analysis
Story
Trump Vows to Save TikTok, Citing 12% Ban Odds
Nov 12, 2024, 07:30 PM
President-elect Donald Trump, who previously attempted to ban TikTok during his first term, has now pledged to oppose any ban on the popular short-form video app. His change of heart comes after he recognized the app's utility in providing competition to other social media giants like Facebook, which he has criticized for its role in his 2020 election loss. Trump's advisers have indicated that he could push Congress to repeal the ban or instruct the Department of Justice not to enforce it. Despite this, the future of TikTok remains uncertain, with some in his potential cabinet expressing opposition to the app due to national security concerns. Trump's promise to 'save TikTok' has led to speculation on how he might achieve this, with some suggesting he could leverage his granddaughter's use of the app as a personal motivation. His own account on TikTok and the low 12% odds of a ban being implemented further underscore his commitment to this stance, as confirmed by the Trump-Vance transition team.
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Similar markets
U.S. Government • 25%
U.S. Courts • 25%
TikTok's legal team • 25%
Other entity • 25%
ByteDance • 25%
U.S. company • 25%
Joint venture • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in lobbying efforts • 25%
Partnerships with U.S. companies • 25%
Operational changes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continues operations without changes • 25%
Divests from ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok operations restricted • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold to a US company • 33%
TikTok continues without changes • 33%
Fully operational with new owner • 25%
Operational under current ownership • 25%
Partially operational with restrictions • 25%
Not operational • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Banned in U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban halted • 25%
Non-China owner found • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban prevented by Trump • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Significant operational changes • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stricter ad policies implemented • 25%
Current policies maintained • 25%
Ban on political ads • 25%
Policies relaxed • 25%