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Market
International response to potential Taiwan invasion by May 2025
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
US military intervention • 25%
UN Security Council sanctions • 25%
EU economic sanctions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Official government statements and major international news outlets
Story
ASML and TSMC Can Disable EUV Chip Machines If China Invades Taiwan, Sources Say
May 21, 2024, 10:11 AM
ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) have developed measures to remotely disable their advanced chip-making machines in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, sources say. These measures include a 'kill switch' that can shut off the machines, which are crucial for producing high-end semiconductors. ASML, the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, has reassured both US and Dutch officials about this capability. The Netherlands has conducted simulations to assess the risks of a potential invasion. This move addresses concerns raised by US officials about the security of semiconductor technology in Taiwan, Bloomberg reports.
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Economic sanctions • 25%
Military support to Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%
Support from Russia or North Korea • 25%
Neutral stance by the EU • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Military intervention • 34%
Economic sanctions against China • 33%
Increased military support for Taiwan • 33%
No significant action taken • 34%
US condemns the drills • 25%
EU calls for restraint • 25%
ASEAN issues a neutral statement • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 33%
Support from any major country • 33%
No significant international reaction • 34%
Condemnation from more than 5 countries • 25%
Formal sanctions against China • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased military aid to Taiwan from allies • 25%
Deploy additional troops • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Broad international support for China • 25%
Mixed international reaction • 25%
Broad international support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation by multiple countries • 33%
Support from allies of China • 33%
No significant international response • 34%
Condemnation only • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military support for Taiwan • 25%
No reaction • 25%
US supports Taiwan • 25%
China takes control of Taiwan • 25%
Both sides reach a peaceful resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no clear resolution • 25%