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Impact on U.S.-Panama relations post-Trump Canal remarks by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Analysis from major international relations think tanks or official diplomatic status reports
Story
Trump Threatens to Reassert U.S. Control Over Panama Canal, Citing Exorbitant Fees and Alleged Chinese Involvement
Dec 28, 2024, 04:30 AM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has reignited controversy by expressing his intention to reassert American control over the Panama Canal, claiming that Panama has been charging exorbitant fees for its use. In a Christmas message, Trump accused Chinese soldiers of illegally operating the canal, a claim vehemently denied by Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, who emphasized that there is no Chinese interference in the canal's operations. Trump's remarks, made via his social media platform, have escalated tensions with Panama.
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Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama reduces tolls • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
Increased US military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. reimposes control • 25%
No change • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased U.S. influence • 25%
Decreased U.S. influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. • 25%
Support for U.S. • 25%
Call for negotiations • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Panama reduces fees • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Protests escalate • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
ALBA • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Organization of American States • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. • 25%
Support for U.S. • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
No official response • 25%
Strengthen ties with U.S. • 25%
Strengthen ties with China • 25%
Maintain neutrality • 25%
Seek other international partnerships • 25%