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Impact of Black voter support on Trump's overall election outcome 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant impact • 33%
Moderate impact • 33%
Decisive impact • 33%
Final election results and exit poll analysis.
Story
CNN: Trump Doubles Support Among Black Voters Since 2020, Best GOP Performance in Generations
May 17, 2024, 03:41 PM
CNN's average of polls indicates that former President Donald Trump has more than doubled his support among Black voters since 2020. This surge in support, if maintained through the general election, would represent the best performance for a Republican among Black voters in two generations, comparable to Richard Nixon's performance in 1960. Notably, Trump has garnered significant backing from a quarter of Black voters under the age of 50. Analysts suggest this shift could disrupt identity politics.
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Similar markets
Below 20% • 25%
20%-30% • 25%
30%-40% • 25%
Above 40% • 25%
Majority support for Biden • 33%
Majority support for Trump • 33%
Evenly split or other outcome • 34%
Significant impact • 50%
No significant impact • 50%
Significant impact • 33%
Moderate impact • 34%
No impact • 33%
Significant increase in approval • 25%
No significant change in approval • 25%
Decrease in approval • 25%
Significant decrease in approval • 25%
Significantly positive impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Negligible impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Increase in Hispanic voter support • 33%
Increase in Asian-American voter support • 33%
No significant change in other minority groups • 34%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Negatively influenced Trump's re-election • 33%
Positively influenced Trump's re-election • 33%
Had no significant influence on the election • 34%
No impact • 25%
Minor impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Significant impact • 25%
Significantly Influenced • 25%
Moderately Influenced • 25%
Slightly Influenced • 25%
Not Influenced • 25%