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How will U.S. policy towards Taiwan change under Trump by December 31, 2025?
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China•United States•Taiwan•Taiwanese•Donald Trump•Foreign Ministry•Lin Jian•Lin•Taiwan Straits•Lai•Hawaii•Guam•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
Official policy statements or legislation from the U.S. government
Story
China Warns U.S. Over Taiwan Support, Cites 'Red Line' Amid Lai-Johnson Call
Dec 6, 2024, 07:58 AM
China has issued a stern warning to the United States regarding its support for Taiwan, particularly following a call between Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that the Taiwan question is a core issue in China-U.S. relations, describing it as a 'red line' that must not be crossed. Lin criticized the U.S. for what he described as 'using force to support Taiwan independence,' stating that such actions are fundamentally incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Straits. In response to President Lai's upcoming transit through Hawaii or Guam, China has stepped up military activities in the region, including likely war games around Taiwan. This move is seen as an attempt to set a 'red line' for the incoming Trump administration and U.S. allies. China has urged the U.S. to stop sending 'wrong signals' over Taiwan and to cease official exchanges with the island, which China considers part of its territory.
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Increased military support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Increase support for Taiwan • 25%
Decrease support for Taiwan • 25%
Shift to a neutral stance • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
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Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
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No change in support • 25%
Other • 25%
China increases military presence near Taiwan • 25%
China imposes economic sanctions on Taiwan • 25%
China takes no significant action • 25%
China engages in diplomatic talks with Taiwan • 25%
President Joe Biden • 25%
Secretary of State Antony Blinken • 25%
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin • 25%
Other • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%