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How will the national security concerns regarding TikTok be resolved by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Concerns fully addressed • 25%
Concerns partially addressed • 25%
Concerns remain • 25%
New concerns arise • 25%
Official government announcements or news reports
Story
Supreme Court to Hear TikTok's Appeal Against Potential U.S. Ban on January 19, 2025, Citing First Amendment
Dec 18, 2024, 08:08 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear TikTok's appeal against a law that could lead to the app's ban in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership by January 19, 2025. The court will consider whether the law, known as the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, violates the First Amendment by potentially restricting the free speech rights of over 170 million American users. Oral arguments are scheduled for January 10, 2025, just nine days before the law is set to take effect. TikTok and ByteDance argue that the law is unconstitutional and that a divestiture is not feasible within the given timeline. The Biden administration defends the law as necessary for national security, citing concerns about data privacy and the potential for foreign influence.
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Security concerns resolved • 25%
Security concerns unresolved • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Ongoing litigation • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
International ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Mandate extended • 25%
Mandate modified • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold • 33%
No action taken • 33%
Ban TikTok • 25%
Force divestiture • 25%
Impose fines • 25%
No action • 25%
Ban reversed • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other action • 25%
Remove TikTok from app stores • 25%
Keep TikTok available • 25%
Announce plans to remove if no sale • 25%
Other actions • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
ByteDance divests US assets • 33%
No action taken • 33%
Ban lifted permanently • 25%
Temporary stay on ban • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ownership changes resolve issue • 25%